RMB against the dollar 2017-year trend, the annual trend of the RMB exchange rate can be roughly divided into two stages, the first stage is this year's first 5 months, during the apparent weakening of the United States dollar, the RMB did not appear a more substantial appreciation, The RMB is generally maintained within a narrow range of 6.80-6.95.

The turning point appeared on 26th May, 2017. Since the introduction of the reverse cycle factor in the RMB intermediate price, the RMB exchange rate has opened a 2017-year appreciation tour. The RMB continued to appreciate against the dollar after breaking the 6.80 mark, up to 6.40, until 11^th September, when the central bank announced that it would adjust the reserve ratio from 20% to zero, capturing the policy signal that the foreign exchange market ended June's unilateral appreciation of the RMB, to 9^th October a total correction of 1500 basis points. The RMB then entered a slightly volatile market against the dollar.

As of 25^th December, the median value of the RMB against the dollar had risen by 5.6% in 2017. For next year's RMB exchange rate trend, the central Economic Work conference proposed: "maintains the RMB exchange rate at the reasonable balanced level the basic stability". Compared with the reference to the exchange rate at the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2016, the "enhanced exchange rate elasticity" was removed.

Figure II: US dollar index and USD/RMB 2017 Trend chart

Looking ahead to 2018, the dollar may be strengthened by US tax reform and the Fed's interest rate hike, which could lead to a downward pressure on the RMB against the dollar in the first half of 2018, up to the third quarter of 2018. However, with the end of the Fed's rate hike, the dollar fell, and the RMB could strengthen again in the second half of 2018.

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