From January to December in 2017, China's steel exports 75.236 million tons, down 30.6% year-on-year. Among them, rod and wire, hot-rolled plate, coating plate, pipe, color coating plate, plate, angle profiles export 16.061 million tons, 13.877 million tons, 12.298 million tons, 8.72 million tons, 6.249 million tons, 5.107 million tons, 3.212 million tons, respectively down 61.1%, 12.1%, 2.3% , 9.8%, 17.5%, 27%, 35.9%; only a few varieties, such as cold rolled plate, electrical steel plate and so on, are growing, export 5.091 million tons and 456,000 tons, and increase 8.7% and 16.6% respectively year-on-year.

I, 2017 China's steel exports 75.236 million tons, year-on-year decline of 30.6%

Customs data show that December 2017 China's steel exports 5.658 million tons, the chain growth of 6.1%, the year-on-year decline of 27.5%, steel imports 1.201 million tons, the chain growth of 5.7%, year-on-year growth of 1%. From January to December in 2017, China's total exports of steel quantity is 75.236 million tons, down 30.6% year-on-year, steel imports 13.298 million tons, an increase of 0.6%.

Figure I: The monthly trend of China's steel import and export

December 2017, China's steel export average price of USD872/ton, compared with the last month to increase USD38/ton, created a New year high. Steel import average price is USD1240/ton, increased by USD19/ton compared with last month. The month, the steel import and export price difference is USD368/ton.

Second, Analysis and forecast of steel export in 2018

Global manufacturing PMI was 54.4% in January 2018, down 0.1% from last month, and the outlook for economic recovery remains upbeat. Among them, the euro zone, the United States, Japan and other developed economies, manufacturing PMI expansion rate is still relatively fast, 59.6%, 55.5%, 54.8% respectively, South Korea, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and other emerging economies in the manufacturing sector expanded to varying degrees, respectively 50.7%, 52.4%, 51.2%, 52.1 % and 52.6%.

The IMF recently raised its forecasts for global growth in 2018 and 2019 by 0.2% to 3.9%. In the next two years, the developed economies will continue to grow, the Indian economy would rebound, the five ASEAN regions will remain basically stable, the economic recovery in Latin America will be strengthened, Mexico's prospects improved and Brazil's economic recovery further consolidated, the Middle East, North Africa, Growth in Afghanistan and Pakistan is expected to rebound in 2018 and 2019, but remains at around 3.5% levels.

January 2018 Domestic Steel Market first fell after the stabilisation rebound, the end of January, the early February price of steel exports to rebound. As at the end of January, China's chrome-plated rebar export price (FOB) 610 USD/ton, calculated Shanghai Freight 5.5-6.5 USD/ton, still higher than the Southeast Asia import (CFR) Price of 555 USD/ton. Over the same period, China's hot-rolled coil export Price (FOB) 590 USD/ton, calculated Shanghai freight, slightly higher than the Southeast Asian import Price (CFR) of 590 USD/ton.

Figure II: Hot rolled coil price trend in China, EU and Southeast Asia

Figure III: China, EU, Southeast Asia rebar Price trend

As the domestic steel market fell from December 2017 to January 2018, export quotes followed the downward adjustment, and the competitive advantage of price export increased. At the same time, the sustained recovery of global economy has backing effect on China's steel export. However, from January to February 2018 is usually in the off-season of the international steel market, coupled with our country to Southeast Asia, South Korea and other major steel exports to the poor, is expected to January 2018 China's steel exports continued the last four quarters low.

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