Recent steel market or a strong consolidation pattern

Last week (October 15 ~ 19th), the domestic steel market first rose and then fell. Li Lijuan, general manager of Shanghai Securities Tianjin Sales Department, pointed out that from the downstream demand level, the first 3 quarters of infrastructure investment growth of 3.3%, the decline gradually narrowed. With the implementation of the "six stability" policy, there are a number of major projects in the acceleration of progress, infrastructure investment is expected to further stabilize. From the supply level, all over the "autumn and winter air pollution Comprehensive control action plan" has been introduced, while the Central Environmental Protection Inspector "Look Back" full start, the Steel city indirectly play a backing role.

In general, the steel market in the near future will be under the influence of infrastructure demand and environmental protection limited production backing, or the operation pattern of oscillation is strong.

The main basis for Li Lijuan to make the above judgments is: First, the quality and efficiency of national economic development has been improving. According to statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the first 3 quarters of the gross domestic product was 65.0899 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%. In the first 3 quarters, the national economy operates in a reasonable range, maintaining overall stability, stability in the progressive, development posture, economic restructuring and optimization, quality and efficiency of continuous improvement.

The economic development of the country has entered the overall situation to support the steel market is a positive factor. Second, fixed asset investment rebounded in the first 9 months of this year. Fixed asset investment, which continued to slide for 17 months, Rose 5.4% in September, up 0.1% from a year earlier. Since the start of the year, growth in manufacturing investment has risen from a low of 3.8% in March to 8.7% in September, up more than a fold. In addition, investment in infrastructure has shown some signs of good. In September, growth in infrastructure investment declined to 3.3% per cent, down 0.6% from August. The state has introduced a series of measures to protect the capital needs of key infrastructure investment projects, speeding up the 1.35 trillion yuan local special debt issuance schedule. Statistics show that in September, the new special debt issuance of 671.323 billion yuan, more than the total circulation of the first 8 months of the year.

With the gradual flow of funds from local debt to projects, the dynamic effects of investments such as infrastructure will be reflected in the fourth quarter. Third, the National steel social inventories fell again. Monitoring data show that October 19, the National 29 key Cities steel Social inventory of 8.8476 million tons, compared with the previous week to reduce 353,100 tons, down 3.84%, from the previous week's rise to decline

National key urban Construction steel Social inventory of 4.6442 million tons, 366,500 tons less than the previous week, down 7.32%, from the previous week's rise to decline; the national key City plate social inventory of 4.2034 million tons, the previous week increased 13,400 tons, up 0.31%. Its four, the National Steel Composite Price Index week and year on the rise. As of October 19, the National Steel Composite price index reached 169.5 points, up 0.39% from the previous week, up 6.49% from a year earlier. Among them, the long stock price index of 189.4 points, up 1.1% from the previous week, up 11.96% compared with the same period last year; The profile price index is 173.8 points, up 0.73% from the previous week, up 3.73% from a year earlier; the plate price index is 151.6 points, down 0.26% from the previous week,

Rose by 2.41% over the same period last year, with a pipe price index of 175.9 points, down 0.19% from the previous week, up 3.75% from a year earlier. Its five, the market price of imported iron ore continued to rise last week. Monitoring data show that, as of October 19, the price of 58% grade powders imported from Australia is $61/ton, up 2 USD/ton compared with the previous week, and the price of 61.5% grade powders imported from Australia is $68/ton, up 2 USD/ton compared with the previous week; 62% imported from Australia

The price of Grade block ore is $94/ton, up 1 USD/ton compared with the previous week. Li Lijuan pointed out that the domestic steady growth of policy-oriented increasingly obvious, macro-policy also began to gradually stabilize the lever from the lever. At the same time, as an important means of supply-side structural reform and industrial structure transformation and upgrading, the role of environmental protection is very obvious. However, environmental Protection limited production is to "differentiation" "refinement" development, no longer simply implement "one-size-fits-all". Therefore, the comprehensive analysis, the recent steel market or consolidation of the strong operation.

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