Big pressure and greater opportunity, 2019 macroeconomic conjecture

In 2019, in the face of short-term and long-term, cyclical and structural issues, how will the economic trend be interpreted and how will the policy mix seek the best match? On the whole, although the downward pressure on the economy is still large in 2019, the economy has no stall risks, and the development opportunities are even greater. The reforms will continue to deepen.

The growth rate of GDP in the heavy era is slightly slowing down

Experts predict that there will be downward pressure on economic growth in 2019, and GDP growth may be around 6.3%.

Zhao Wei, chief macro bond researcher of Changjiang Securities, said that in 2019, the downward pressure on the economy may continue to release, and the GDP growth rate may fall back to around 6.1%. The economy will bottom out and stabilize until the end of the third quarter.

Bian Quanshui, chief macro analyst of Guojin Securities, said that from the perspective of actual demand, the period of rapid decline in economic growth has passed, and the overall trend of GDP growth in 2019 is low and high. Against the background of changes in the external environment and internal structure adjustment, the GDP growth target for 2019 is expected to be 6.0%-6.5%. Looking at the quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter was 6.2%, 6.1%, 6.2%, and 6.3%, respectively, or 6.2% for the whole year.

However, in Gao Peiyong, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the scale of GDP and growth rate are not the only goals, not even the most important ones. Quality and efficiency are the most important. Higher quality, more efficient, more equitable, more sustainable, and a development model of high-quality development stage that is guided by the new development concept. "If you can't make GDP higher, you will breathe a sigh of relief. If you lower it, you will be nervous and tired."

Tax cuts and tax reductions will not soar

In 2019, a proactive fiscal policy will work harder to implement a larger tax cut and reduce fees. Experts believe that tax cuts and fees are mainly from raising fiscal deficits and reducing expenditures. The "larger scale" indicates that the fiscal deficit may increase significantly.

Does the deficit size exceed 3%? Many experts believe that the possibility is not great. From the historical data, China’s fiscal deficit rate target has never exceeded 3%. Gao Peiyong recently said that tax cuts and fee reductions cannot be used as a source of funds for issuing additional government bonds and deficits, and the fiscal deficit is locked in the proportion of GDP within 3%, and there are also considerations for stable expectations.

Downgrade can be expected to be liquid in the market

Experts believe that in 2019, the central bank will adhere to a prudent monetary policy and pay more attention to moderate and moderate, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that “directed looseness” may be the operational direction of the 2019 monetary policy tool portfolio, and “directed RRR reduction + money market instrument adjustment” will be the basic tool combination. It is expected that the monetary policy will adopt a series of money market instruments in 2019 to ensure that market liquidity is at a reasonable level of abundance, promote the steady development of non-credit financing, balance market liquidity fluctuations, and support market institutions to match liquidity maturities and moderately reduce them. The money market interest rate level effectively controls liquidity risk.

Two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate stabilized

Judging from the RMB exchange rate, the pressure of RMB depreciation is more due to the differentiation of the fundamentals of China and the United States.

Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that there will still be some depreciation pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in 2019. The future trend will mainly depend on the external environment. At the same time, we must further promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism.

The price of worry-free low inflation is coming

In 2019, the pressure on prices will not be too great, and it will not restrict the monetary policy space, but it needs to be alert to the risk of deflation.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, predicted that with the further adjustment of the balance between supply and demand inside and outside, the price level in 2019 remained generally moderate. Due to the significant decline in international crude oil prices and the relatively high base effect, the PPI rose slightly, and as food prices rebounded further, CPI rose slightly, and the CPI and PPI gap continued to shrink. It is estimated that the annual CPI will increase by 2.4%, the PPI will increase by 3.4%, and the GDP deflator will be 2.8%.

Experts believe that real estate regulation is difficult to relax, and establishing a long-term mechanism is still the key.

Boosting steady growth in domestic consumption

Since 2016, the nominal growth rate of China's fixed asset investment has been lower than the nominal growth rate of GDP, which means that the investment-driven model is not sustainable for the Chinese economy. Experts believe that consolidating consumption in the middle-income class is the key to stable consumption. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2019 will be about 9.0%-9.2%.

Precautions for foreign trade "endangered organic"

Looking forward to the foreign trade situation in 2019, the growth rate of import and export is expected to decline, but there are also positive factors.

Song Xuetao, head of the macro team of Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, predicts that the export growth rate will fall back in 2019, but it may be slightly better than expected. The negative impact on exports in 2019 was mainly due to weaker external demand.

From the perspective of imports, Bianquans believes that the simultaneous weakening of domestic and international demand will lead to weaker imports in 2019, but there are also two positive factors: First, the growth rate of imports of mechanical and electrical products may be at a higher level, and second, the import policy is expanded. Boosting effect.

Standardizing the reform of the fiscal and taxation system

In 2019, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system will be further promoted, the local tax system will be improved, and the government's debt financing mechanism will be regulated. Establishing a modern fiscal system and improving the tax system requires a series of legal support.

In addition, experts believe that it is necessary to promote the transformation of tax collection and management methods and taxation according to law, further improve the tax collection and management laws; improve the international taxation legal system and deeply participate in global tax administration.

Stable leverage focuses on sustainable leverage

Jiang Chao believes that the macro debt ratio has stabilized. In 2019, China's economy is expected to enter a stable leverage stage, and the growth rate of various currencies and financing is expected to gradually stabilize. Credit has remained relatively stable, corporate bonds and local government special bonds have maintained growth, and it is expected to promote the growth rate of social financing in 2019 and the growth of various currencies to stabilize.

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