"Silver four" will seek a breakthrough in shock

April 1, the VAT New deal officially landed, the early market in response to the VAT rate cut and the initiative to call back the price of the action on this.

At present, the cold rolled coil market overall operation is stable, although some markets are still in a state of replenishment, but the overall market operation is relatively stable.

At present, iron and steel enterprises and steel traders in the late trend judgment of differences, steel mills are still in a state of price, and steel traders because of the cautious demand for terminal procurement and have to cut the price of shipments to stimulate demand. On the one hand, the steel mill's willingness to stand still strongly indicates that at this stage the market price bottom support remains stable. From the steel mill April cold rolled coil ordering policy, river Steel, Baosteel increased 300 yuan/ton, Shougang increased 200 yuan/ton, Bengang increased 50 yuan/ton.

In view of the current low profits of cold rolled coil products, in order to protect their own profits, steel mills actively reduce the product factory price is less likely, to a certain extent, to help maintain price stability. In addition, the current steel market "long strong plate weak" situation still exists. And long material has a minimum of hundreds of dollars of profit space, the current stage of cold rolled coil per ton of profits only around hundred yuan, the lowest only 50 yuan. In this case, the steel mill is more willing to produce long materials and other profitable products, will lead to cold rolled coil products market delivery to a certain extent reduced.

Do not rule out the shortage of some specifications of products and a wave of short-term strong rebound market possibility. On the other hand, demand is difficult to release, inhibiting market prices upward. As the main market for cold rolled coils, the performance of the automotive industry this year has not been satisfactory. According to data released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the auto consumption index was 65.4 points in March this year, consumer demand weakened and market performance was bland. In terms of the sub-index, the March demand index was 66.1 points, down from February, and consumer demand for cars is expected to remain buoyant in April. It is gratifying to note that the sales of new energy vehicles surged, to a certain extent, to reduce the overall decline in car sales led to the overall fall in the procurement volume of cold-rolled coil board, but the overall positive role is always limited, not enough to shake the current market pattern.

Overall, car market sales are expected to decline in April compared with March. Taken together, with the April VAT policy "Boots" landing, tax point adjustment on the market price impact is basically exhausted, market prices will return to the fundamental game, but also to guard against the rapid rise in prices brought about by the increase in the restocking, inventory backlog led to poor shipments, and eventually led to the price of steel back down the channel.

It is expected that the short-term cold rolled coil market will continue the shock adjustment market, in the supply and demand game to seek a new breakthrough.

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