The global market will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The industry is highly concerned about Powell’s speech.

After the Argentine presidential primary election results disrupted the global market, the multi-country yield curve was upside down and caused recession concerns, and then the uncertainty of the external environment once again highlighted. At present, the industry expects short-term market volatility to remain high. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the market is highly concerned.

The multi-country yield curve was collectively upside down last week and was seen by the industry as a sign of economic downturn. On the day when the key indicators of the US economic recession, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves, were upside down, the European and American stock markets experienced a sharp decline. The Dow once fell more than 800 points, the biggest one-day drop in the year. However, this key indicator is no longer upside down last Friday, which has alleviated investors' concerns to some extent.

"There is a study that believes that the rate of return curve will last at least a quarter or more, and it will be statistically relevant. If the upside continues to occur and lasts for more than a quarter, investors will be wary of the possible recession. Ren Zhenming, market analyst at CMCMarkets Greater China, told the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Although the concerns are temporarily eased, the global market has indeed experienced no small fluctuations. European and American stock markets were still unable to rebound last week. The three major US stock indexes fell by 0.8% to 1.5% last week. Among them, the Dow once renewed the biggest one-day drop in the year. The European market, which is suffering from weak economic data, is also sluggish. The UK's FTSE 100 index, the German DAX30 index and the French CAC40 index fell between 0.5% and 2% last week.

After a wave of unrest and a wave of ups and downs, the market's large fluctuations have kept investors' minds in a tight state.

“There is still a high probability of market volatility in the coming months. For this reason, we are always looking for risk-averse portfolios.”Emily Roland, co-investment strategist at John Hancock Financial Services said.

Faced with various uncertainties, some investors hope that the global central bank will adopt a loose monetary policy to boost the economy. At the end of July, the Fed opened its first interest rate cut in 10 years, pulling the direction of global loose monetary policy.

Last week, the Mexican central bank announced a rate cut of 25 basis points to 8.00%, which is the first time the central bank cut interest rates since 2014. The reason for the rate cut is geopolitical risk and concerns about the global economic slowdown. According to the latest data from CME Group's “Federal Watch”, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September by 21.2%, up nearly 6 percentage points from the beginning of the week.

This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and deliver a speech. Investors pay close attention to their speeches. Fed observers expect Powell to dispel speculation that it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of September on Friday, but it is still unclear whether it can cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

"The Fed has the potential to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, but I don't think the current economic data supports this decision," said Morgan Chase economist Bruce Kasman.

However, Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, believes that monetary policy is not a good solution to all problems. What central banks can do is provide the market with the forward-looking prospects they want to hear. Guidelines.

The global economic slowdown has caused the market to worry about the economic recession, and the price of gold as a safe-haven asset has once risen.

“The gold bulls will still dominate, due to geopolitical tensions, the uncertainty of the UK’s detachment and the continued relaxation of monetary policy by central banks around the world,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

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