October and November steel price trend

"In the second half of the year, with the help of macroeconomic policies, the center of gravity of steel prices will move upwards, and the steel market will present a pattern of'strong macroeconomics, strong demand, high supply, and high inventory'. In November, it hit a high for the whole year.” On August 15, during the 16th Iron and Steel Industry Development Strategy Conference, Zhang Qiusheng, Marketing Director, Chief Analyst, and Senior Engineer of Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. accepted a reporter from China Metallurgical News Telephone interviews and forecasts on the steel market trend in the second half of the year.

　　The epidemic became a leading factor in the operation of the steel market in the first half of the year

　　 "There is no doubt that the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia is the leading factor in the steel market trend in the first half of this year." Zhang Qiusheng first pointed out the "fuse" of the steel market fluctuations in the first half of this year.

　　 First, from a macro perspective, the "epidemic +'oil war'" has led to an accelerated global economic recession. In the first half of the year, overseas epidemics spread and the global economy declined. With the continuous implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment measures such as "expansion of finance, wider currency, reduction of taxes and fees, strong investment, and promotion of consumption", my country's GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned from negative to positive, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. "Since the outbreak of the epidemic, my country's economic recovery speed has led the world." Zhang Qiusheng said.

　　Secondly, from the perspective of supply, the supply of crude steel has decreased abroad and increased at home. In the first half of the year, global crude steel output reached 870 million tons, down 6% year-on-year. Among them, my country's crude steel output was about 500 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. As of the end of June, the national blast furnace operating rate had risen to 91.8%, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, a record high.

　　 Third, from the perspective of demand, the demand in the first half of the year was weak and then strong. The epidemic caused demand to delay the release for about 2 months. Entering the second quarter, downstream construction sites entered a period of rush to construction, the demand for construction steel was released rapidly, and the market transaction volume remained high. In June, due to the continuous heavy rainfall in the south, the demand for construction steel decreased seasonally, but the manufacturing industries such as automobiles, construction machinery, and home appliances continued to improve, and demand was more resilient.

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